Tag Archives: polls

Here’s how Trump might lose this thing

Glenn Thrush, Politico: 5 reasons Trump might fall in autumn

Most intriguing: “Everything has gone Trump’s way — and he’s still not ahead.”

For the past week or 10 days, Trump can’t do anything wrong and Clinton can’t do anything right. And he’s still behind in the polls.

Another factor that might undermine Trump: Trump himself. Trump sees this election as much as an opportunity for self-expression as for winning the election. When he gets cocky, he starts saying offensive things, and when those backfire he gets MORE outrageous.

And, finally, Trump’s biggest enemy is fear.

Clinton’s biggest problem is that her supporters are a lot less enthusiastic about her than Trump’s supporters are about him. Hell, I’m an unusually enthusiastic Clinton supporter but an objective observer would label my support as “lukewarm.”

However, the prospect of a Trump White House scares the piss out of me.

I was talking with a friend the other day who is an astute political observer — and who, unlike me, hates both Clinton AND Trump. He said he sees it as highly likely that the United States would experience a military coup within a year of Trump taking the oath of office as President.

That possibility had not occurred to me — and I found I agreed with him, and was relieved.

That’s how scary Trump’s campaign is. A military coup seems like one of the BETTER outcomes of the 2016 election.

And, as Thrush notes, in an election, fear is as big a motivator as love.

Of course, that goes both ways. Trump’s racist supporters are terrified that a Clinton Presidency would be the death of white America. And they might be right, too — only what they see as a nightmare scenario, the rest of us see as the culmination of Martin Luther King’s vision and the American dream — of America as a place where a person is judged by “the content of their character,” not skin color, religion, gender, ethnicity, or sexual orientation. Even if Clinton wins the election, there’d still be a long way to go to achieve that vision. But this election could be a tipping point. One way or the other.

Harry Truman: Born to lose

Everybody knew for months that Truman was going to lose to Thomas Dewey, so much so that Dewey took long breaks from campaigning, says Lillian Cunningham on the Washington Post’s Presidential podcast. And by the time Truman left office, he was staggeringly unpopular. But now he’s one of the most-respected and best-loved Presidents in American history.

In the newest episode of the Presidential podcast, biographer David McCullough looks at some of the most difficult calls President Truman made during his time in the White House, including the decisions to drop the atomic bomb, push for civil rights legislation and fire Gen. Douglas MacArthur.

Washington Post polling manager Scott Clement also joins the episode to explain the biggest polling failure in presidential history—when Truman won the 1948 election, despite the many polls that seemed to show he didn’t stand a chance.

Link

Trump is No Mystery. There’ve Been No Surprises. [Josh Marshall – Talking Points Memo]

Maybe.

From my perspective as someone who’s been following the election only moderately closely, it’s been common wisdom all along that Trump would flame out.

Even as late as a couple of weeks ago, it was common wisdom that Trump wouldn’t have enough delegates to take the nomination on first ballot. The convention would be contested, and in that case anything could happen.

Now it looks like that was wrong too.

So is Clinton the overwhelming odds-on favorite to take the general election?

Maybe. I’d be relieved if that was the case, and even more relieved if Trump leads the GOP into losing the House and Senate as well.

I admire and respect Clinton. But a victory for her is a victory for the Washington establishment. And the Washington establishment is destroying American democracy and turning us into a nation ruled by the 1%.

Link

Donald Trump is hugely popular with less-educated white men. Everybody else hates him, according to Jonathan Martin and Nate Cohn on the New York Times.

“We’re talking about somebody who has the passionate devotion of a minority and alternately scares, appalls, angers — or all of the above — a majority of the country,” said Henry Olsen, a conservative analyst. “This isn’t anything but a historic election defeat just waiting to happen.”

Hillary Clinton is likely to be the Democratic nominee, and beat Trump in the general election. Interestingly, Sanders is less likely to win the Democratic nomination but more likely to beat Trump in the general, The Times says.

The “general-election universe is vastly larger and more diverse than the Republican primary electorate” – about 30 million votes anticipated in this year’s GOP primary, compared with 129 million voters in the 2012 Presidential general election, according to the Times.

Electoral Map is a Reality Check to Donald Trump’s Bid [Jonathan Martin and Nate Cohn – The New York Times]