Polls show Trump faces overwhelming odds in the general election

Donald Trump is hugely popular with less-educated white men. Everybody else hates him, according to Jonathan Martin and Nate Cohn on the New York Times.

“We’re talking about somebody who has the passionate devotion of a minority and alternately scares, appalls, angers — or all of the above — a majority of the country,” said Henry Olsen, a conservative analyst. “This isn’t anything but a historic election defeat just waiting to happen.”

Hillary Clinton is likely to be the Democratic nominee, and beat Trump in the general election. Interestingly, Sanders is less likely to win the Democratic nomination but more likely to beat Trump in the general, The Times says.

The “general-election universe is vastly larger and more diverse than the Republican primary electorate” – about 30 million votes anticipated in this year’s GOP primary, compared with 129 million voters in the 2012 Presidential general election, according to the Times.

Electoral Map is a Reality Check to Donald Trump’s Bid [Jonathan Martin and Nate Cohn – The New York Times]

18 Replies to “Polls show Trump faces overwhelming odds in the general election”

  1. He’s about to face a HUGE deficit. The biggest loss in presidential history. The BIGGEST, I tell you. 😉

  2. “…less educated white men.” It will be interesting to hear the results should we be able to investigate whether the issue isn’t the amount of education but the quality of the education.

  3. I would not use that line of argument. They have real grievances. They just picked a lousy champion in Trump because he was the only candidate speaking to their concerns.

    Note that both parties have “orphan blocs” of voters that they choose not to represent. They stay in the political wilderness until someone tries to bring them into one party or another. Until then, both parties would rather stage “turnout elections”, where they rely solely on their hardcore supporters, rather than reach out to new groups in order to win by larger margins.

    1. You’re talking about political strategies. Too often people do that to excuse the behavior and beliefs of Trump’s (generally white, generally male) supporters. I don’t buy it. Just because a political party has “ignored” you doesn’t make it OK for you to support an asshole.You say the candidate speaks to their concerns, but that’s only true if their concerns are racist, misogynist, and xenophobic. He is decidedly NOT offering solutions for underemployment, deficits in education and healthcare, the income gap, homelessness, drug addiction, and so on. And to suggest that the Democratic party has been ignoring low-income, less-educated whites for decades is simply wrong; their *campaigns* may not have been targeted to them, but their policies sure as heck are. But, these people have spent their lives feeling cheated out of some birthright that was supposed to be theirs because… they’re white and male. I just don’t care about their tears. White American men are the most privileged class of people on Earth. I’m pretty fed up with their complaining now because suddenly women and people of color are competing for jobs and money and status. Boo hoo. You want change? You want a safety net? You want success? Vote for the Democrats–they’re the ones actually looking to help. If you can’t see that, too bad for you. (Not YOU, William; Trump supporters.) Finally, to suggest that white men are “orphan voters” strikes me as insane. The entire US system is built to favor white men. Feh.

    2. Sorry, we don’t. We do see our responsibilities. Anyone white guy who sees an entitlement or a privilege is a fucking loser.

    3. To be clear, I’m saying that white male Trump supporters see themselves that way. Not all white men.

    4. To be clear, men are taught from day one that their self-worth is measured by the work they do. Work is not a privilege. Work is a responsibility. And even the most bigoted, chauvinist, racist Trump supporter understands this.

      Men are expendable. We lay them off. We kill them on battlefields. They get a card and a tie on Father’s Day. That’s pretty much it.

  4. They have real grievances — agreed. But if you misunderstand a problem (or worse yet, misidentify it), you’re likely to latch on to a solution that is likely to get you nowhere except more aggrieved. Trump is not the only candidate speaking to the concerns of Trump voters — Sanders is, as is Clinton.

  5. Whoa Mel…ease the fire-breathing there! Dems have relied on minorities and women to come out strong for them in election years and then largely abandon them for a long time now. In this presidency alone, Obama and his cohorts have just kept the fires stoked for 7+ years and not actually fixed anything…cause if they did, these voting groups might not actually need to vote for them anymore…God Forbid!

    And don’t be to quick to predict HUUUGE Trump loss…since we as a people only show up to vote with a mere 55% of us in a good year, if he turns out an extra 10% he probably wins

    1. They haven’t fixed anything because the GOP has made it their (publicly stated mission) to block everything Obama and the Dems suggest.

    2. That’s simply not true…he had both houses for two years and the senate for 6, where Reid actually blocked everything…no votes, no amendments, no budgets. Obama even admits he detests dealing with the whole legislative process, even his own party.

  6. Correct about Sanders.

    As far as the internal politics of the Democratic Party goes, Sanders is a threat to the status quo, which is identity politics. Programs must be tailored to answer the concerns of women and minorities. Sanders is countering that by putting the economy first and making sure that Uncle Sam helps everybody.

    Historically, programs that produce the greatest good for the greatest many are more readily adopted. (Duh statement–it’s bloody obvious.)

    So if you want to compete for orphan blocs, offer them something. Trump got his support by filling a vacuum. In a competitive system, you never give up a vote to your opponent.

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